Bakun, A.,
B. A. Black,
S. J. Bograd,
M. Garcia-Reyes,
A. J. Miller,
R. R. Rykaczewski
and W. J. Sydeman, 2014:
Anticipated effects of climate change on coastal upwelling ecosystems
Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 85-93.
Abstract.
Ecosystem productivity in coastal ocean upwelling systems is threatened by climate
change. Increases in spring and summer upwelling intensity, and associated increases in
the rate of offshore advection, are expected. While this could counter effects of habitat
warming, it could also lead to more frequent hypoxic events and lower densities of
suitable-sized food particles for fish larvae. With upwelling intensification, ocean acidity
will rise, affecting organisms with carbonate structures. Regardless of changes in
upwelling, near-surface stratification, turbulent diffusion rates, source water origins, and
perhaps thermocline depths associated with large-scale climate episodes (ENSO) maybe
affected. Major impacts on pelagic fish resources appear unlikely unless couples with
overfishing, although changes toward more subtropical community composition are
likely. Marine mammals and seabirds that are tied to sparsely-distributed nesting or
resting grounds could experience difficulties in obtaining prey resources, or adaptively
respond by moving to more favorable biogeographic provinces.
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