Robinson, A. R., H. G. Arango, A. J. Miller, P.-M. Poulain, A. Warn-Varnas and W. G. Leslie, 1996:
Real time operational
forecasting on shipboard of the Iceland-Faroe frontal variability.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
77, 243-259.
Abstract.
Real-time operational shipboard forecasts of Iceland-Faeroe frontal variability were executed for the first time with
a primitive equation model. High quality, intensive hydrographic surveys during August 1993 were used for
initialization, updating, and validation of the forecasts. Vigorous and rapid synoptic events occurred over several-day
timescales including a southeastward reorientation of the Iceland-Faeroe Front and the development of a strong, cold
deep-sock meander. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of the skill of these forecasts shows they captured the
essential features of both events. The anomaly pattern correlation coefficient and the rms error between forecast and
observed fields are particularly impressive (and substantially superior to persistence) for the forecast of the cold
meander.
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