Miller, A. J., M. Collins, S. Gualdi, T. G. Jensen,
V. Misra, L. P. Pezzi, D. W. Pierce,
D. Putrasahan, H. Seo and Y.-H. Tseng, 2017:
Coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling and predictions
Journal of Marine Research, 75, 361-402.
Abstract.
Key aspects of the current state of the ability of global and regional climate models to represent
dynamical processes and precipitation variations are summarized. Interannual, decadal, and global-warming
timescales, wherein the influence of the oceans is relevant and the potential for predictability
is highest, are emphasized. Oceanic influences on climate occur throughout the ocean and extend over
land to affect many types of climate variations, including monsoons, the El Niño Southern Oscillation,
decadal oscillations, and the response to greenhouse gas emissions. The fundamental ideas of coupling
between the ocean-atmosphere-land system are explained for these modes in both global and regional
contexts. Global coupled climate models are needed to represent and understand the complicated
processes involved and allow us to make predictions over land and sea. Regional coupled climate
models are needed to enhance our interpretation of the fine-scale response. The mechanisms by which
large-scale, low-frequency variations can influence shorter timescale variations and drive regionalscale
effects are also discussed. In this light of these processes, the prospects for practical climate
predictability are also presented.
Reprint (pdf)