Miller, A. J., T. P. Barnett and N. E. Graham, 1993:
A comparison of some tropical ocean models: Hindcast skill and El Nino
evolution
Journal of Physical Oceanography,
23, 1567-1591.
Abstract.
Tropical Pacific SST hindcasts are examined in the Zebiak and Cane (Lamont), Latif (MPIZ), Oberhuber (OPYC), and
GFDL ocean models, each forced by the same wind-stress fields over the 1970-85 time interval. Skill scores reveal
that, although all the models exhibit significant skill, the regions where the skill is maximized differ from model to
model. The simplest model (Lamont) has maximum skills in the eastern basin near the boundary while the three GCMs
have maxima in central Pacific regions. We also examine, via canonical correlation analysis (CCA), the heat budgets of
the surface layers of the Lamont, MPIZ, and OPYC models. We find that although similar spatial relationships exist
for the mechanisms that excite SST anomalies (i.e., zonal advection, meridional advection, and vertical
advection/mixing), the balance of the strength of these terms is different for each model. Vertical advection tends to
control the large-scale structure of SST in the Lamont model, meridional advection provides the dominant large-scale
forcing for SST anomalies in the MPIZ model, and all three terms are important in the region of developing SST in the
OPYC model. CCA reconstructions of the El Nino events of 1972-73 and 1982-83 reveal that the Lamont model does
not exhibit any clear eastward propagation of SST; the MPIZ model propagates SST anomalies eastward for both the
1972-73 and 1982-83 El Nino events while the OPYC model propagates SST eastward for the 1982-83 El Nino and
develops SST in place for the 1972-73 El Nino.
Reprint (pdf)